For months, every claimant in the Oscar race this year is suffering from bad luck, poor strategy, or some combination of rapidly unavoidable reality that the Internet never forgets. But then, like a Phoenix arises from the ashes of self-immolation of its rivals, Anora Now suddenly suddenly it has actually come out – not because it is running the most clever campaign (which is with him), but because, miraculously, this is the last film.

Seen Baker’s horror, $ 6 million indie, about a Brooklyn sex worker, had spent a better part of the season as a respected Dalit person caught in a tornado romance with a Russian elite son, by critics Dear but to a large extent, the previous people were ignored who usually decide which usually decide. Oscar trajectory. Golden Globes snatched it completely, and until last week, it seemed lucky for the same fate that mostly affects the ear darling – endless praise, limited hardware.

Then, in a seismic weekend, Anora An impossible hat trick is drawn, who wins the best images at the producer Guild Awards (PGA), the best director at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA), and the Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. It was a decisive flex of the muscle muscle, and even more importantly, a death shock for its rivals, which spontaneously burnt in the week.

Drown in dispute

This year every major contenders have developed a fatal defect on the way: Cruelist Screen actors did not get to take care of the guild (not to mention their own brief AI Scuffle),, conclave An absent director suffer from nomination, Wicked Its directors and writers were seen closed by the academy, and A complete unknown There was still a room full of people who actually loved it. Meanwhile, pre -leading on the wishes of glory, Emilia Perez The collateral damage in a dispute became so unstable that even its biggest defenders quietly waived themselves from the conversation.

Even Anora There was no immunity for dispute. Its prominent actress, Mickey Madison, picked up the eyebrows when she carelessly admitted that she opted not to use an intimacy coordinator for several clear sex scenes of the film. But compared to its rivals, AnoraThe misunderstanding of her looked almost bizarre.

In a season where every major claimants have been injured by the scam, Anora One thing has benefited from one thing that no award can plan for a strategist: being at least being an objectionable option. It is not to say that it does not have emotional supporters (take a quick scroll through the Oscar subredit for reference), but in a year where voters can end with controversies, it helps in any way that its The biggest knock against it is that its producers Don Don ‘T believe in’ T intimacy coordinators.

(And against) case for ‘Anora’

So is Anora Our best picture winner? Obstacles say yes.

In the last 22 years, only three films winning the top honors of the DGA failed to win the best director at the Oscar. In the last 34 years, not only nine films winning the PGA award have not been won to win the best pictures. Last time a film flowed the choice of critics, PGA and DGA and then the best picture was lost. 1917 In 2020 – but it was a loss ParasiteAnother Palme D’Or Winner, released by Neon, studios currently chefing Anora For the finish line. If Anora The best picture wins, it will mark Neon’s second win in just five years, which will be an impressive achievement for boutique distributors who compete against Hollywood veterans.

Beyond the data, Anora There is a shortage of some other films: a compelling story. It is a rare Oscar contender at the intersection of Indi credibility and mainstream access.

Sean Baker is making a case for himself, the kind of filmmaker Hollywood needs to be rewarded. He, finally, a director who still shoots on the film, makes films for less than $ 10 million, and provides box-office success without relying on intellectual property, CGI or a superhero cape. On each podium, he has emphasized the need for dramatic release and independent cinema – an argument that plays well in an era where the industry is still finding out how to understand how to leave their homes The explosion or teller Swift is not included. He has also nominated in four categories – the director, manufacturer, writer and editor – means if he sweeps, he will tie Walt Disney’s record for most Oscars won in the same night.

It is being said, Anora Is far away from a lock. The largest polling body actors in the academy can be, may be, may be Substance Or in Fernanda Torace I’m still hereMeanwhile, BAFTA, which has an external impact on the Oscar race, is still ahead, and conclavePope thriller of Edward Berger, can make some land there. If Anora This is effectively finished by the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award for the Best Ensambal Awards at the end of this month. If not, we still have a race.

‘Cruelist’ and time problem

For most weather, Cruelist Some of the best pictures were seen as one of the favorite. It had all the common trappings of the Oscar winner: a star-stad ancembal, an ambitious (if polarization) artistic vision, and the voters just suffering enough on screen it was “important”. But Cruelist Never ignited the passion required to win.

The three and a half hours of black and white drama about the decades-lambi battle of an architect with creative oppression were never going to be an easy sale, but its biggest problem can be the time. It was late to release in December, which meant that it had to fight for meditation Anora Was at the peak. On the contrary, Baker’s film, since the onset of Cannes in May, was constantly creating goodwill, quietly accumulating fans and proving her strength to live.

Can anything still beat ‘Anora’?

At this point, it is difficult to see where the upset can come from. Emilia Perez Is outside. Cruelist Is weak. Tibba: Part Two And Substance The best photos are also style-roots. Nickel Boys And I’m still here Are very small.

He leaves conclave, WickedAnd A complete unknown,

conclave There is a chance, especially if rallies are held behind it in the academy’s British party BAFTA. Wicked Naturally is a commercial juggling, but its lack of industry-wide recognition makes it a long shot. A complete unknown Is … Okay, is still completely unknown.

During this time, Anora Keeps gaining momentum. The next stop is Baffus, where it has seven enrollment. If it wins a best picture or director there, the race is effectively finished. Then the Writers Guild Awards (WGA), where it is enrolled for the original screenplay – another possible boost. And then, of course, the above SAG Best ENSIMBAL win can put the final nail in the coffin of any final-minute competition.

So, do we have our next best picture?

Perhaps. But this year has been quite strange that nothing seems certain. If conclave Or Cruelist Manages to rally in BAFTA, if the SAG jerks with a separate attire winner, if the academy decides to be unexpected only for it – well, well, anything possible.

For now, however, Anora Exactly sitting at the same place where he wants to be: in front of the pack, with history and speed towards it. The only thing that is left to do is wait and see if the academy follows the script or the last time the table flipped.

The Oscar stream lives on 3 March.