At the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards ceremony, this year’s meeting was all the construction of the final-winning innings in power. conclaveThe political thriller of Edward Berger, who had been steaming in recent weeks, snatched the top honor of the night – the best dress – landing on a sharp job AnoraProposed Best Picture Heavyweight. Meanwhile, Demi Moore (Substance), Zo Saladana (Emilia Perez), And Kiran Kulkin (A real pain)) Tightening his grip on the acting race tightly, left very few spaces for surprise; While Timothy Chalmet (A complete unknown) A surprising blow for the head of the Oscar Frontner Adrian Body, fought a historic first win. But unstable as this one in the Oscar season, “If there was only certainty and there was no doubt, there would be no secrets”. And this would be an Oscar night as the night because they come.

So, what does it all mean for Oscars? Well, in some ways, everything – and in others, absolutely nothing.

The tight and the easiest acting race

Demi Moore’s relaxed victory Substance It seems that she strengthens her as the best actress of the best actress, but Mickey Madison (Anora) Not yet out of the race. Moore has been on the streak of a win, taking both Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards, but Madison’s BAFTA win shows that the academy may be more divided than expected.

If history is a guide, Anora The SAG prizes may be more than an omen compared to an ego, and Madison’s necklace complicates its Oscar trajectory. Typically, in a tight acting race, the artist gets the upper hand in a strong film. Last year, Lily Gladstone (Flower moon killersWon won but saw Emma Stone (Poor things) Waltz away with Oscars. A year before that, Brendon Fraser (whale) And Michelle Yeh (Everything everywhere at once)) The Austin Butler converted his relaxed victory to Oscar Gold (Elvis) And Kate Blanchets (Tar) Was left in the cold, despite the headline of more widely famous films.

If Anora Sag was the best closure, Madison can have a clear route, but with Substance All but Moore’s acting conquest guaranteed a win in hair and makeup, the academy can be prime to bend the same way. still, Anora The best images, the best director and the best original script remain a malignant force, which appears to be within access. Moore may be at the forefront, but Madison is not yet out of the fight.

However, the best actor remains a true toss-up. Timothy Chalmet (A complete unknown) SAG Award took home, but Adrian Body (Cruelist) Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice Awards, sweeping everywhere everywhere. Chalmat as a bob dialon is a type of transformative biopic role by the academy, but the speed of the brady, as well as for his previous Oscar win the piano GuysIt can be a safe bet. tie breaker? Possible dispute. Cruelist A-assisted accent has faced probe on its use, and while it may not be sufficient to completely derail the opportunities of the broadi, it adds another layer of unpredictableness to the mixture.

Meanwhile, Keran Kulkin and Zo Saladana are almost unopposed in their auxiliary categories. Kyulkin, especially, is swept away by every major forerunner prize, which is one of the safest stakes of the night. Vildana’s victory is equally important, which helps Emilia Perez Keep your presence in the Oscar conversation, despite the dispute around her leading actress, Carla Sofia Gakson recently.

‘Anora’ vs ‘Conclave’: A true best picture race?

for months, Anora One was acting like a heavyweight champion in the lap of victory. It had already taken home Top Honors from the director Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild – traditionally, a deadly combination in the best picture race. It won at the Indy Spirit Awards later this week. but then, conclave In BAFTA, a well -offered punch was taken off and then injecting the sense of uncertainty, with the SAG Encelling win, which was considered a forecast closing.

Historically, the SAG Encentive Award is an unstable prophet of the best picture. Of the last 29 winners, only 15 have claimed Oscars Gold. However, last time a film won the best picture after losing the SAG Ensembal Race while sweeping the PGA, DGA and WGA. Water size In 2018. Good for this AnoraBut conclave Looks like starting Arguor even Green bookJoe, after being a snub for the best director enrollment, turned back with a strong late game to claim the best picture.

Whereas conclaveThe possibility of getting upset with a best picture is uncertain, its path looks far more secure for the victory of a best customized screenplay. The film has already claimed major screenplay awards in Baffus and Golden Globes Tibba: Part TwoAbsence from the category this year, it is one of the few places where conclave Can win a certain win.

Nevertheless, an important fact can be weak Conclave Possibility: Oscar voting was already closed before handing over the SAG award. If conclave Was going to shake the race, that moment of motion was needed before being caused by ballot papers. Maintained in obstacles Anora Great, but in a year it can be competitive, anything.

final call

As it stands, Anora Stays at the forefront, but conclave There is every reason to catch Asha in the camp. The acting race is mostly expected of victory with Moore, Saladana and Kalkin, while the best actor may come down to the academy’s tolerance for risk. If conclave To win the best pictures, it will be a real disturbing, but not an unprecedented. Hollywood loves a redemption arc and if one thing is conclave Has proved that nothing is set in the stone until the final envelope is opened.

Oscar streams live on 3 March