Cannes often serves as a launchpad for films that will dominate the awards circuit in the months to come. Sean Baker’s film debut at the 77th Cannes Film Festival, chaired by jury president Greta Gerwig Anora Along with the Palme d’Or. As the festival drew its curtains down, it not only celebrated the brilliance of this year’s winners, but also made early predictions for their trajectory to the 2025 Oscars.

Cannes’ influence isn’t just limited to the awards; it shapes the narrative of the film year, providing a preview of thematic and stylistic trends that will dominate discussions. This year’s winners, with their diverse stories and unique voices, reflect a broader effort toward inclusivity and innovation in cinema. Whether these films will be able to turn their festival wins into Oscar gold remains to be seen, but history and the current cultural climate suggest a promising path forward.

Palme d’Or

Palme d’Or winner for his film ‘Anora’, director Sean Baker poses during a photocall after the closing ceremony of the 77th Cannes Film Festival. Photo Credit: Sarah Messonnier

Historically, Cannes has been a reliable predictor of Oscar success, where Palme d’Or winners have garnered 143 Academy Award nominations and 33 wins since the award’s inception in 1955.

Sean Baker AnoraDistributed by Neon, it is at the forefront of this discussion. Neon is seeing a strangely predictable turn in Cannes, and Anora follows in the footsteps of Parasites (2019), Titan (2021), triangle of sadness (2022), and the anatomy of falling (2023). With this win, Neon has won the Palme d’Or an unprecedented five times in a row.

This track record bodes well for us AnoraIn the Oscar campaign, three of the last four Neon-distributed Cannes winners received nominations for Best Picture at the Oscars. Last year, Justin Triet’s the anatomy of fallingIt was nominated in five categories at the Oscars 2024: Best Director for Justin Triet, Best Actress in a Leading Role for Sandra Hüller, Best Original Screenplay for Justin Triet and Arthur Harari, Best Editing, and Best Picture; of which it won Original Screenplay. Parasites Not only did it win the Palme d’Or, it also made history by winning Best Picture at the Oscars, the first film to do so Marty In 1955.

Neon’s strategic acumen in leveraging its Cannes win for its Oscar campaign cannot be underestimated. Anora And seed of the sacred fig With this experience, the distributor is well positioned to replicate its past success. Anora The film looks set to receive nominations in several categories, including Best Picture and possibly even a Best Actress award for Mikey Madison.

Grand Prix

Payal Kapadia poses with the Grand Prix Award for ‘All We Imagine as Light’ during the Palme d’Or winners’ photocall at the 77th annual Cannes Film Festival | Photo Credit: Pascal Le Segretain

Payal Kapadia wins Grand Prix We all imagine ourselves as light This marked an important milestone for Indian cinema. It is the first Indian film to participate in the main competition at Cannes in 30 years and the first Indian woman-directed film to do so.

Historically, the Grand Prix has been a reliable indicator of Oscar prospects. Seventeen Grand Prix winners have earned 35 Oscar nominations, with seven films earning ten wins. For example, Jonathan Glazer’s Area of ​​interestLast year’s Grand Prix winner, the film received five Oscar nominations, including Best International Feature and Best Sound awards.

Given this precedent, Kapadia’s film has a strong chance of making it to the Best International Feature Film category. The film is a prime candidate to be India’s submission for the Best International Feature Film category and the Grand Prix win establishes it as a serious contender at the Oscars.

Jury Prize

Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz with Best Actress Award co-winner Carla Sofia Gascon and director Jacques Audiard, Jury Prize winner for the film “Emilia Perez,” pose during a photocall after the closing ceremony of the 77th Cannes Film Festival in Cannes, France on May 25, 2024. | Photo credit: Yara Nardi

Jacques Audiard Emilia PerezAwarded a Jury Prize, the film explores gender identity and a trans narrative led by a standout performance from Carla Sofia Gascón. Although the Jury Prize does not always correlate to Oscar success, they have collected 39 Oscar nominations and nine.

Emilia Perez could potentially break this mold with its strong ensemble cast, which also includes Zoe Saldana and Selena Gomez, and potential acting nominations for them. The film could resonate with the Academy’s emerging sensitivity to diversity and representation and be offered as Mexico’s official submission to next year’s Oscars.

Director

Director Miguel Gomes, winner of the Best Director award for the film ‘The Grand Tour’, poses during a photocall after the closing ceremony of the 77th Cannes Film Festival. Photo Credit: Sarah Messonnier

The award for Best Director went to Miguel Gomes. Grand TourA romantic drama. While only seven Cannes Best Director winners have been nominated for an Oscar, the quality and scope of Gomes’ storytelling could earn him a spot among the nominees. Previous Cannes winners in this category, such as Alejandro González Iñárritu noise (2006) and for Joel Coen Fargo (1996) was a critical success, winning nods at the Oscars, suggesting that Gomes could achieve similar success.

Screenplay

Director Coralie Fargeat, winner of the Best Screenplay award for the film ‘The Substance’, poses during a photocall after the closing ceremony of the 77th Cannes Film Festival. Photo Credit: Sarah Messonnier

Coralie Fargeat Substancewhich won the Best Screenplay award, presents another Oscar contender. Best Screenplay winners from Cannes have recently received more recognition at the Oscars, including Ryosuke Hamaguchi’s drive my car (2021) has received nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and won Best International Feature. Fargeat’s screenplay, starring Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley and Dennis Quaid, is very likely to be included in the Original Screenplay category at next year’s Oscars.

actor

Cannes Best Actor winner Jesse Plemons poses during a photocall for the film ‘Kinds of Kindness’ at the 77th Cannes Film Festival. Photo Credit: Sarah Messonnier

Jesse Plemons won the award for Best Actor.Types of kindness He is considered an early contender for the Oscar. Historically, sixteen winners of the Best Actor award at Cannes have received nominations for the Academy Award. Plemons, who was nominated for the first Oscar power of the dog (2021), showcasing his versatility in Yorgos Lanthimos’ film, portraying different characters across three vignettes.

Lanthimos’ recent films have been Oscar successes, including 2018’s Favorite and last year’s poor thingsBoth won the Best Actress award and received multiple nominations. Thus Plemons’ performance may be similar, earning her a second Oscar nomination.

Special Awards

Director Mohammad Rasoulof, winner of the Special Jury Prize for the film ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’, poses during a photocall after the closing ceremony of the 77th Cannes Film Festival. Photo Credit: Sarah Messonnier

mohammed rasoulof seed of the sacred figThe special award recipient faces a challenging path to the Oscars. Historically, films that receive special mentions at Cannes have had limited success at the Oscars. However, Rasoulof’s painful personal story of filming under oppressive conditions in Iran is a compelling backstory that could sway Academy voters, as seen with Michael Moore’s film. bowling for Columbine (2002), which won the 55th Anniversary Prize at Cannes and later the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature.